O impacto dos números da previdência social no Rio Grande do Norte: uma análise longitudinal de 1993 a 2015

Abstract

In the context of changes in the age structure of the Brazilian population in the last decades, it has been observed for the next years the widening of the age pyramid in the higher age groups, culminating in a process or phenomenon known as population aging. Such a process, if accompanied by coherent investments and decision-making, may cause social security to remain firm in its financial structure, guaranteeing coverage of the elderly population in subsequent decades. Given this scenario, this study seeks to evaluate the impact of indicators to measure the quality of the Brazilian social security system, taking as an example the Rio Grande do Norte - RN, vis-à-vis recent changes and future trends of the Brazilian population's age composition. Thus, data from demographic censuses and population estimates of the IBGE from 1980 to 2030 are used in conjunction with data from the Statistical Yearbook of Social Security concerning the numbers of contributions and benefits, the latter subdivided by its types (benefits, aid and insurance ). It is also observed the evolution of the percentage of the composition of transfers of income to the families and of the compulsory and discretionary expenses, in relation to the GDP, between 2003 and 2015. The indicators of retirement, pension and unemployment insurance of the NB were treated with the methodology Regression analysis. Finally, it will be seen that Brazil will need to invest even more in social security, so that it can increase the receipt of its contributions even more, in order to seek a financial balance, since the country will begin to experience larger contingents in its Population.