O pacote anticrime e a teoria da dissuasão: análise do equilíbrio entre severidade da lei, probabilidade de punição e lucratividade do crime no Brasil

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the effectiveness of Brazil’s Anti-Crime Package in combating organized crime, with a special focus on the state of Rio Grande do Norte and the articulation between local and national criminal factions. The research is grounded on deterrence theory and examines whether merely increasing the severity of criminal law is sufficient to reduce organized crime, arguing instead that efficacy depends on an integrated approach: raising the probability of punishment, reducing the profitability of criminal activities, and carrying out deep institutional reforms, especially in the prison system. The work investigates the evolution and current dynamics of major criminal groups operating in the region, highlights persistent challenges related to containing criminal organizations inside and outside prisons, and explores limitations in policing, including corruption and selective law enforcement. It further examines the role of technology such as artificial intelligence, predictive monitoring, and OCR systems in modern law enforcement, and synthesizes successful examples of interagency cooperation and social prevention policies. This qualitative study draws on bibliographical and documentary sources, national legislation, academic scholarship, government and NGO reports, and field data. The results indicate that real deterrence is only achievable when legal severity is balanced by effective enforcement and economic disruption of criminal organizations, emphasizing the urgent need for integrated reforms and coordinated public policy as a path to a safer, more just society in Rio Grande do Norte and throughout Brazil.